Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Q3 led by pick-up in export growth The breakdown of GDP data released this morning for several Central and South Eastern European economies confirmed that the moderate recovery in the third quarter was supported in large part by... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth gradually picking up A raft of GDP data released over the past month confirmed that growth in Emerging Europe accelerated in Q3, albeit gradually. Overall, we calculate that regional GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y, up from 1.6%... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further modest rate cuts in Hungary may be on the cards Today's cut in Hungarian interest rates is likely to be followed up by one more cut next month, which we currently think will mark the end of the easing cycle. However, the recent sharp fall in... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Eastern Europe shrugs off euro-zone slowdown Central and South Eastern Europe seems to have shrugged off the slowdown in the euro-zone in the third quarter of this year, with growth accelerating in most countries. The exception was the Czech... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack An uneven recovery Growth in Emerging Europe continues to accelerate, but the recovery remains uneven. Central Europe, and Poland in particular, is leading the way. This is thanks to the recent improvement in key euro... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end Hungarian policymakers cut interest rates again today, but there are a whole host of reasons to think that the easing cycle is nearing an end. The economy is recovering and core inflation is rising... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets outperform other EMs Equity markets in Emerging Europe have outperformed the rest of the emerging world over the past month. The largest gains have come in Central Europe, where the growth outlook continues to improve... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to stay low even as growth recovers Inflation in Central and South Eastern Europe slowed to a record low in September and is likely to remain subdued throughout 2014, even as growth recovers. This in turn should mean that monetary... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Light at the end of the austerity tunnel While the economic challenges facing Russia and Turkey are growing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook for the rest of Emerging Europe. The pick-up in growth in recent months has... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking the long view The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update September’s PMIs show Turkey rebounding, Russia lagging September’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the highly-open Central European economies continued to recover and that Turkey’s manufacturing sector rebounded. However, growth in Turkey appears to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
