Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank could still cut interest rates further Having lowered interest rates by a little more than the market expected today, the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting communiqué (unusually) didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data show recovery gathering steam This morning’s raft of flash Q4 GDP estimates from Central and South Eastern Europe was, for the most part, stronger than our above-consensus forecasts and suggests that growth in Emerging Europe as a... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Central Europe – where are the prospects for industrial rents brightest? The recent surge in industrial confidence in Hungary increases the upside risks around our forecasts for industrial rental value growth. But after taking account of existing spare capacity, the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data highlight uneven recovery January’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence that the economies of Central Europe are enjoying a decent recovery, but that manufacturing in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies, Russia... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank shoots itself in the foot In spite of the recent sharp fall in the lira, high inflation and rising inflation expectations, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caved in to pressure from the government and resisted hiking interest... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does rising confidence in Hungary herald stronger growth? Last month’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for Hungary rose to its highest level for over a decade and, on past form, this is consistent with GDP growth of 5% y/y or so. However, it’s worth noting... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update December’s PMIs highlight fragile recovery Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month. Russia aside, the PMI readings are still high by the standard of the past couple of years. Even so, today’s data serve as a reminder that the... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Hungary's investment market be on the cusp of recovery? There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for the Hungarian commercial property investment market. This afternoon’s further cut in interest rates, to a fresh record low of 3%... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe to keep rates low, Turkey set to tighten The Turkish central bank took small steps to tighten monetary conditions today but, given the country's vulnerability to Fed tapering, more aggressive measures could be needed next year. In contrast... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
