Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a few more small rate cuts on the cards Having resumed its easing cycle earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that a few more small rate cuts are likely over the coming months. For now, we have pencilled in 30bp of rate cuts, which... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (Dec.) Strong industrial production figures from both the Czech Republic and Hungary in December provide further evidence that Central Europe is weathering headwinds from the euro-zone relatively well. On... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC hints that case for rate cuts is building The communiqué accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.1% earlier today once again signalled that current monetary conditions are likely to stay in place for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Republic Ind. Prod. (Nov.) The weakness of Turkish industrial production in November, which grew by just 0.7% y/y and fell by 0.1% over the month, provides an early sign that GDP may have contracted over the quarter. In... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Acc. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) Turkey’s current account deficit continued to decline in October and the fall in oil prices means it should narrow even further, towards 5% of GDP, over the coming months. Meanwhile, Hungary’s CPI... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime yields to fall for another three years The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy in Hungary to stay loose The National Bank of Hungary left interest rates unchanged today and, in spite of negative inflation, the MPC appears to be in no mood to resume policy easing. But equally, there will be little... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3) Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were surprisingly strong given the headwinds facing the region from Russia and, in particular, the euro-zone. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to activity stabilising September’s PMIs suggest that the slowdown in the region’s manufacturing sector may have stabilised towards the end of the third quarter. Encouragingly, the Polish PMI edged up, having fallen for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
