Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC could still turn to rate cuts The Hungarian MPC seemed to pour cold water on the prospect of additional monetary policy easing in the statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting. However, we think the Council is still too... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary revamps monetary framework…again Planned changes by the National Bank of Hungary to its benchmark three-month deposit facility announced this afternoon could act to loosen monetary conditions, although in practice they seem unlikely... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Ratings upgrade in Hungary will outweigh potential Brexit fallout We do not see the UK’s vote to leave the EU as having a major effect on the CEE economies and property markets. Indeed, with Hungary likely to be buoyed by a second ratings upgrade later this year, we... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC a little more cautious, but further rate cuts likely The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary was a little more cautious than we had expected, but even so, with inflation likely to stay subdued and growth weakening, we think there’s... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) The sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish industrial production in February provides some evidence that local firms are benefiting from a weaker lira. Elsewhere, the decline in Hungary’s inflation... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle has further to run The weak inflation outlook and prospects for slower growth mean Hungary’s easing cycle, which resumed today, has further to run – we anticipate a few more small rate reductions in the coming months... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How successful has Hungary’s unorthodox monetary policy been? Hungary’s National Bank has radically reorganised its monetary policy framework over the past couple of years, in the process moving away from interest rate cuts and turning to increasingly unorthodox... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) The pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in October, coming alongside an uptick in the latest business surveys, suggests that the economy continued to perform strongly in Q4. Elsewhere... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC pledges to keep policy loose for longer The National Bank of Hungary’s MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.35% earlier today, but the Council used the accompanying press release to commit to keeping interest rates on hold at... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
