Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors made an impressive start to the year. The surveys suggest that industrial production growth in Central Europe... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs The sharp fall in the Turkish lira already this year, and the disappointing response by the central bank, have prompted us to revise our currency forecast down. We now see it ending the year at 4.00/$... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year The Hungarian MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged earlier today and the accompanying statement remained dovish in spite of a jump in inflation at the end of 2016. Looking ahead, with growth... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017 The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today suggests that the Council thinks the need for additional monetary easing has diminished. As a result, we have taken the very... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ending the year with a whimper Most economies in Emerging Europe enjoyed a strong first half of 2016, but regional growth has slowed sharply over the second half of the year. Q3 GDP data showed that the Turkish economy suffered an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based The recently-released breakdowns of Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe showed that most major expenditure components weakened, although there was still some encouraging news at a country... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook CEE yields to fall faster and for longer As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that growth in the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened between Q3 and Q4. At a country level, the surveys suggest that Russia’s recovery is... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The batch of strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that GDP growth in the region as a whole recovered in Q4. But while the aggregate picture... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2016) The weaker-than-expected preliminary Q3 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe support our view that growth in the region is likely to settle at a more moderate pace of 2.5-3.0% y/y in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed The decision by the Hungarian MPC to limit the use of its three-month deposit facility has been signalled as an effort to loosen monetary conditions, but recent experience suggests that it’s unlikely... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
