Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s strong survey data overstating Q2 GDP growth The sharp improvement in business and consumer confidence in Hungary – where various survey measures hit record-highs in Q2 – doesn’t appear to reflect a pick-up in actual GDP growth. We think it’s... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) June’s impressive batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators suggests that regional growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained above 4% y/y in Q2. The continued strong run of survey data supports our... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC signals loose policy to stay The Hungarian MPC’s extremely dovish post-meeting press statement provided further evidence that policymakers are as yet untroubled by growing signs of capacity constraints. Monetary policy is set to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) Turkey’s current account deficit remained wide in February, but there are some encouraging signs that the boost to competitiveness from the weak lira may already be having a positive effect. Elsewhere... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Developers Hungary for returns will dampen Budapest rental growth Higher Budapest office capital values mean that new development is increasingly viable, with developers now in-line to make healthy profits. But, higher levels of supply will cause rents to flatline... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports The recently-released breakdowns of Q4 GDP data in the Central and South Eastern European economies showed that the pick-up in regional growth at the end of last year was driven by an encouraging... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
