Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing

Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is...

6th June 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries

The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary-China relations: a limitless partnership?

Chinese President Xi’s visit to Hungary this week was the first by China’s head of state in 20 years and led to the establishment of an “all-weather partnership” between the two countries. There are...

10th May 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q1)

The slightly better-than-expected Q1 GDP figures out of Hungary and Czechia suggest that economic recoveries had a little more momentum at the start of this year than we previously thought and that...

30th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month...

25th April 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to opt for a smaller 50bp cut to its base rate today, to 7.75%, provides support to our view that its monetary easing...

23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts

Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the...

19th April 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

What do Germany’s struggles mean for CEE?

The continued weakness in the German economy that we expect over the rest of this decade presents a challenge to the export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While GDP growth...

18th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy

The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set...

12th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation to rebound before long

While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’...

11th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Public finances now a growing concern in parts of CEE

The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region. The need for fiscal...

5th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CEE industrial rents to trail the rest of Europe

The CEE industrial market cooled in 2023 as economic activity stagnated. This year will herald an economic recovery but we don’t think it will be stop the rent growth slowdown. Demand is anticipated...

4th April 2024 · 3 mins read