Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints that tightening is on its way The statement accompanying today’s Hungarian MPC meeting provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are shifting towards the start of a tightening cycle. For our part, we think that interest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary courts controversy, Russian economy picking up The creation of a controversial parallel new court system in Hungary – signed into law on Wednesday – will bring the government into further conflict with Brussels, but the economic impact is only... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Hungary’s National Bank tighten policy? We’ve argued for a long time that the monetary stance of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) is far too accommodative, and it finally appears that tightening is on the horizon. The complex nature of the... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car emission tests not the key driver of CEE Q3 slowdown The net impact of a new vehicle emissions testing procedure on Q3 GDP growth appears to have been minimal in Poland and the Czech Republic, but could have knocked up to 0.4%-pts off quarter-on-quarter... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Budapest offices to see one last hurrah in 2019 Delays on development projects mean that demand will comfortably exceed completions next year, driving rental values higher again. Thereafter, annual completions could reach in excess of 300,000 sqm... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungarian CPI (Sep.) We think that the unexpected drop in Czech inflation last month, to 2.3% y/y, will persuade the MPC to pause its tightening cycle at next month’s meeting. Elsewhere, a further rise in inflation in... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing loose policy to an end The National Bank of Hungary’s revamp of its monetary policy framework announced today was characteristically complex. But the key point is that the Bank is paving the way for policy tightening and we... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC: further hints that tightening is on the cards The Hungarian MPC’s post-meeting communications reinforced the message that the MPC is inching towards a tightening cycle. For our part, we think inflation is likely to rise further than most think... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing era of ultra-loose policy to an end The post-meeting communications following today’s Hungarian MPC meeting offered some strong hints that the recent era of ultra-loose monetary policy is in its final days. We think that unconventional... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: pre-election fiscal boost to fade over 2018 Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has gained a reputation for fiscal prudence in the past few years, but the latest data suggest that stimulus in the run-up to April’s parliamentary election has caused... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
