Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC underestimating inflation risks The decision by the Hungarian MPC to ease monetary conditions further today looks like a policy misstep. Mounting capacity constraints and rapid wage growth mean that we think inflation will turn out... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the overheating risk in Hungary? There are no clear signs yet that Hungary’s economy is overheating but, by the same token, growing signs that the economy is hitting capacity constraints sit uncomfortably with the MPC’s continued... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth has remained robust in Q3, at around 4.5% y/y, but also that growth is now peaking. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2017) Today’s strong batch of Q2 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe support our above-consensus growth forecasts for this year as a whole. Looking ahead, GDP growth is likely to peak in Q3 in... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s strong survey data overstating Q2 GDP growth The sharp improvement in business and consumer confidence in Hungary – where various survey measures hit record-highs in Q2 – doesn’t appear to reflect a pick-up in actual GDP growth. We think it’s... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) June’s impressive batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators suggests that regional growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained above 4% y/y in Q2. The continued strong run of survey data supports our... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC signals loose policy to stay The Hungarian MPC’s extremely dovish post-meeting press statement provided further evidence that policymakers are as yet untroubled by growing signs of capacity constraints. Monetary policy is set to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
