Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a short, sharp tightening cycle takes hold Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised interest rates by 30bp today and with inflation set to remain above the MNB’s 4% upper tolerance level well into 2022, we expect an additional 60bp of tightening at... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Direction shifting towards tightening in Hungary Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its key interest rates on hold today but the tone of the communications could not have been much more hawkish without raising interest rates. The MNB is defending its... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint weakness to prevent further rate cuts in Hungary The decision by Hungary’s central bank to leave its base rate on hold at 0.60% today highlights that the central bank is in a bind due to high inflation and concerns about the forint. Further interest... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank brings forward easing Hungary’s central bank (MNB) unexpectedly cut its base rate from 0.90% to 0.75% at today’s monetary policy meeting, and we now think another cut is likely in the second half of this year. With the... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC targets the yield curve Hungary’s central bank didn’t disappoint at today’s MPC meeting in announcing its bond purchase programme and it’s clear that policymakers have shifted their attention from keeping short-term rates... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary announces new liquidity-providing tools Hungary’s central bank announced a range of measures to increase liquidity in the banking system at today’s MPC meeting. But the economic effects of the coronavirus are likely to be much more damaging... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints at possible rate hike in March The slightly more hawkish tone of the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting statement supports our view that the central bank will deliver a 10bp hike in the overnight deposit rate next month. However... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: shift towards tightening will be limited Hungary’s central bank will probably use Tuesday’s meeting to flag a shift towards tightening and we expect a small hike in the overnight deposit rate in March. But this is likely to be a symbolic... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s boom has further to run in 2020 Hungary’s economy is likely to lose some steam this year, but loose policy will ensure that growth remains above potential. This will keep inflation high and economic imbalances will continue to build... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Budapest retail and industrial to top the CEE tables The outperformance of Budapest’s office sector is coming to a close, but we still expect the retail and industrial sectors to beat their CEE peers in terms of total returns. 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Hungarian bank lending unlikely to last The recovery in Hungarian private sector credit has been an important driver of GDP growth in recent years, but we think that the credit boom doesn’t have much further to run. 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: surveys point to a fresh pick-up in core inflation A raft of survey data suggests that last month’s fall in Hungarian core inflation is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend – as the central bank anticipates. We expect that underlying price... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
