Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: policy tightening now a severe headwind The 200bp increase in the base rate (to 9.75%) by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) today has resulted in the most aggressive amount of monetary tightening in decades. With fiscal policy tightening too and... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Hungary falling into a crisis? Hungary’s economy is now under substantial pressure. The forint has slumped and interest rates have been hiked aggressively. The only way through this is to accept the pain of a weak currency and... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE current accounts now in worrying territory Surging global commodity prices have hit Central and Eastern European economies like a tsunami in recent months, causing a severe terms of trade shock and current account deficits to blow out. These... 6th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB sends a strong message with monster rate hike Hungary’s central bank (MNB) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a much larger-than-expected 185bp increase in its base rate, to 7.75%, and the hawkish communications underline the view that... 28th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary tightening, ruble strength, Bulgaria support Officials in Hungary sought this week to reassure investors that they will tackle inflation and mounting macro imbalances. Tighter policy is needed, which underpins our below-consensus growth... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Completion delays prolong Budapest office market dip Past delays in development projects mean that office completions will exceed demand in Budapest this year and next. As such, having held broadly steady in 2021, office vacancy is set to rise again and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy sanctions ratchet up, Russia close to default? This week’s announcement that the EU will ban the import of Russian coal from mid-August will not have a major impact on Russian export revenues, but it marks a clear shift in the EU’s aim to target... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory Optimism about the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine came and went this week and, given the complexity of the issues at stake, it is likely to be some time yet before a breakthrough in talks is... 1st April 2022 · 10 mins read
