Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth gradually picking up A raft of GDP data released over the past month confirmed that growth in Emerging Europe accelerated in Q3, albeit gradually. Overall, we calculate that regional GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y, up from 1.6%... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack An uneven recovery Growth in Emerging Europe continues to accelerate, but the recovery remains uneven. Central Europe, and Poland in particular, is leading the way. This is thanks to the recent improvement in key euro... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets outperform other EMs Equity markets in Emerging Europe have outperformed the rest of the emerging world over the past month. The largest gains have come in Central Europe, where the growth outlook continues to improve... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Light at the end of the austerity tunnel While the economic challenges facing Russia and Turkey are growing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook for the rest of Emerging Europe. The pick-up in growth in recent months has... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
