Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policy credibility in Turkey, bleak CEE GDP data The latest developments in Turkey – including the expected appointment of former finance minister Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet – provide encouraging signs that President Erdogan will moderate his... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE downturns easing, but tepid growth to follow Economies across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have significantly underperformed the euro-zone and the rest of the world in recent quarters, which has its roots in the scale of the inflation shock... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2023) Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were fairly weak on the whole, but Poland’s economy beat expectations and the worst of the regional downturn now appears to have passed. Even so, headwinds... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech fiscal tightening, last thoughts before Turkey’s vote The Czech government’s long-awaited fiscal consolidation package unveiled this week will include fiscal tightening to the tune of 1.5% of GDP over 2024/25 and will come at the cost of weaker growth... 12th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB: hawks rear their heads, but Q3 rate cut in play The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2023) & Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The 0.1% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q1 means that the economy avoided remaining in a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, but we think that growth will still disappoint consensus... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE rate cuts coming into view, FX rally may not last Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe provided firmer signs this week that, with inflation now declining, monetary loosening may soon be on the cards. But there are still clearly big... 28th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: current account improvement to continue Large current account deficits across CEE have started to narrow in recent months and we think that this will continue as slowing economies and lower energy prices shrink import bills. This will... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
