Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Jan.) We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d anticipated... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid labour cost growth eroding competitiveness The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively... 9th February 2024 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank accelerated the pace of its monetary easing cycle today with a 50bp interest rate cut, to 6.25%, and the post-meeting communications support our view that an even larger... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.2% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy contracted over 2023 as a whole, and we think that this is likely to be followed by tepid growth this year. We maintain our... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Five key themes from Euromoney's CEE forum The fading energy crisis and the falls in inflation and interest rates generated a more positive mood about the economic outlook at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) forum in Vienna this... 18th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Turkey for December suggest that industrial sectors ended 2023 on a relatively soft note. But Russia remained the outlier, where the... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have... 15th December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
