Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Czech inflation last month, to 0.2% y/y, slightly reduces the probability that the National Bank will ease monetary conditions further at next month’s MPC meeting. Nonetheless, with... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will stronger industrial output drive CE industrial rental growth? A combination of strengthening industrial output and further growth in the logistics sector will underpin industrial rental levels in Central Europe this year and allow them to pick up from 2016. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC keeps policy unchanged, but hints at loosening Having kept its two-week repo rate unchanged at 0.05% and maintained its exchange rate ceiling of 27/€ earlier today, the Czech MPC’s accompanying statement struck a markedly dovish note. As a result... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds fall further as debt talks start The start of debt restructuring negotiations in Ukraine has been accompanied by further losses on the country’s foreign currency government bonds. Meanwhile, currencies in Central Europe have weakened... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) & Czech IP & Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y drop in Polish consumer prices last month was driven largely by an even steeper fall in petrol prices. Meanwhile, Czech activity data released today show that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier and investment indicators fall sharply in Moscow A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Turkey Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & Czech CPI (Jan.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production growth to 2.6% y/y in December provides an encouraging sign that the economy may have emerged from its recent slump. But even so, growth over Q4 as a whole... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (Dec.) Strong industrial production figures from both the Czech Republic and Hungary in December provide further evidence that Central Europe is weathering headwinds from the euro-zone relatively well. On... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Czech inflation last month, to just 0.1% y/y, was due to both base effects and the impact of lower oil prices on fuel inflation. There is a risk that the headline inflation rate... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can Prague retail rental growth pick up steam? Given below-trend consumer spending growth in the Czech Republic until mid-2016, the short-term outlook is for only limited growth in retail rental values. While stronger growth will then push rents... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
