Europe Commercial Property Update Are Prague offices at a turning point? The current sweet spot for Prague office occupier demand isn’t likely to last for long. Next year will see vast levels of new completions alongside a slowdown in demand growth. Nevertheless, we expect... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero The Czech MPC’s post-meeting press conference reinforced our view that it will lift the exchange rate ceiling around the middle of next year. We think it’s unlikely that the koruna will strengthen... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted Despite growing views to the contrary, it’s not clear to us that the Czech koruna will appreciate sharply as and when the National Bank exits the exchange rate “cap” policy. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2) The slightly stronger-than-expected Czech Q2 GDP growth figure, of 2.5% y/y, reinforces our view that, while the economy is likely to slow a little further in the coming quarters, the strength of... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood The Romanian MPC’s press conference was a little more dovish than we had anticipated, but robust domestic demand and rising inflation mean gradual interest rate hikes still seem more likely than not... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4.) The fall in Czech GDP between Q3 and Q4 will take some of the gloss off Emerging Europe’s best performing economy last year. The underlying picture is still strong, but at the margin these data... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Dec.) The weak Czech inflation figure for December, of just 0.1% y/y, reinforces our view that the National Bank will extend its commitment to keeping policy loose. We expect the MPC use the next few policy... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Nov.) The much weaker-than-expected rise in Czech consumer prices last month, of just 0.1% y/y, is unlikely to raise fresh concerns about deflation. But even so, it may tip the balance on the MPC in favour... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Czech CPI (Oct.) The slowdown in Turkish industry in September means that industrial production growth over Q3 as a whole was a little slower than in Q2. Elsewhere, the weaker-than-expected inflation data from the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty causes Romanian MPC to sounds cautious The press conference following the Romanian MPC meeting earlier today confirmed our view that the resignation of the Prime Minister yesterday would prompt the Council to adopt a more cautious line... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
