Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals rate hike in August The hawkish tone of today’s post-meeting statement and press conference supports our non-consensus view that the first interest rate hike in the Czech Republic will come at August’s MPC meeting... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) June’s impressive batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators suggests that regional growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained above 4% y/y in Q2. The continued strong run of survey data supports our... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech markets unfazed by ongoing political drama Financial markets in the Czech Republic have, for the most part, shrugged off the various twists and turns in the political crisis that has gripped the country over the past couple of weeks... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC raises prospect of rate hike this year The Czech MPC’s statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting was generally quite dovish, but it does looks like the Council intends to start raising interest rates, albeit very slowly, this... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) & Turkey Ind. Production (Feb.) The further rise in Czech inflation (both headline and core) last month is, with the koruna cap now at an end, likely to shift attention to the timing of the first interest rate hike. For our part, we... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague office rental growth prospects revised upwards Upgrades to the outlook for employment in the Czech Republic for 2017 and 2018 mean that office vacancy rates will stay close to current lows, driving rental growth of 3.5% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CZK moves to managed float, further appreciation likely Despite what looks like heavy FX intervention by the Czech National Bank upon the exit from the koruna ceiling policy earlier today, comments from Governor Rusnok suggest that the Bank will tolerate... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at early koruna cap exit We think the next Czech MPC meeting on 4th May is the most likely date for a lifting of the koruna cap, but today’s comments by the Council have raised the risk that it happens outside of a scheduled... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growing chance of Czech koruna overshoot after cap exit The jump in speculative inflows to the Czech Republic since the start of the year has increased the likelihood that the central bank will bring forward its planned exit from the koruna cap and that... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Feb.) Last month’s stronger-than-expected rise in Czech headline inflation was driven entirely by higher food and fuel inflation and, on its own, is unlikely to be of too much concern to the National Bank’s... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports The recently-released breakdowns of Q4 GDP data in the Central and South Eastern European economies showed that the pick-up in regional growth at the end of last year was driven by an encouraging... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
