Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: gradual shift to easing next year The communications following today’s meeting suggest that Czech policymakers are trying to temper the market’s view that interest rates will be cut in the coming months. Nonetheless, the Bank’s... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Upside risk to our Prague industrial rent forecasts The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech underperformance unlikely to continue The Czech economy has underperformed its regional peers in recent years due to its larger exposure to the euro-zone and weaker household spending. However, the Czech slowdown is close to bottoming out... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The rise in Czech inflation to a six-year high of 3.0% y/y in March was driven primarily by a pick-up in food inflation and probably is not enough to convince the central bank to hike rates next month... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech National Bank flags euro-zone concerns The Czech National Bank made clear that it is more concerned about the impact of weakness in the euro-zone than strong domestic inflationary pressures. We still think that above-target inflation may... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Czech economy likely to continue We think that weakness in Germany and softening domestic demand will result in Czech GDP growth slowing to about 2.5% this year. This puts us at the bottom of the range of forecasters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna likely to be weaker than CNB expects The Czech koruna is likely to defy the central bank’s (CNB’s) expectation that it will appreciate over the coming quarters. One consequence of this is that policymakers will probably raise interest... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE core inflation rising, CBRT considering backdoor easing? Data released this week showing a pick-up in core inflation in Hungary and the Czech Republic support our view that, unless the activity figures take a sharp turn for the worse, central banks in both... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone slowdown worries Czech National Bank The Czech National Bank’s post-meeting communications made clear that concerns about the external environment resulted in interest rates being left on hold – rather than hiked – today. Given the Bank... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car emission tests not the key driver of CEE Q3 slowdown The net impact of a new vehicle emissions testing procedure on Q3 GDP growth appears to have been minimal in Poland and the Czech Republic, but could have knocked up to 0.4%-pts off quarter-on-quarter... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: Still scope for more tightening in 2019 The forecasts accompanying today’s Czech monetary policy meeting imply that the CNB’s tightening cycle is now finished. Following seven interest hikes, we agree that the bulk of tightening has already... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Czech property yields be about to turn sharply? The increasing maturity of the Czech property market means that, despite signs of slowing rental growth, the rise in Czech government bond yields will not be mirrored in property yields. 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
