Emerging Europe Economics Update Long road ahead for CEE auto producers Auto producers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced intermittent factory closures in the second half of this year and things may get worse before they get better. Motor vehicles... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slams its foot on the brakes with monster rate hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) shocked everyone with a 125bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting and while this was clearly intended to front-load tightening, the hawkish communications suggest that... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3) The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a little... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy The surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Eastern Europe has prompted the re-imposition of restrictions and it looks like measures will be stepped up, weighing on recoveries in Q4. Tight restrictions... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Car woes to weigh on recoveries in Mexico & CEE The supply constraints that have hit global vehicle output have probably reduced the level of GDP by a modest 0.1-0.2% in most EM auto producers, but some countries like Czechia, Hungary and Mexico... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the next Czech government The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal... 6th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs for September provide additional signs that supply constraints continued to weigh on output in Central Europe, although it seems that price pressures eased further. 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB accelerates its tightening cycle The Czech National Bank (CNB) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 1.50%, at today’s meeting and its hawkish communications signalled that further aggressive... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
