Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB delivers another hawkish shock The Czech National Bank (CNB) hiked rates by 100bp (to 3.75%) today and Governor Rusnok struck an incredibly hawkish tone after the meeting. The tightening cycle clearly has further to run and we now... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail to make a comeback in 2022 With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming... 16th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus outbreaks diverge, but Omicron a renewed risk COVID-19 outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe have diverged in the past month and that may continue in December, but the emergence of the potentially highly-transmissible Omicron variant could... 30th November 2021 · 16 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yield compression to continue into 2022 After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyclical pressures set to keep CEE inflation elevated Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has continued to surge and now sits at its highest level in around 20 years. This can be partly attributed to global factors, such as rising energy... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2021) The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally undershot expectations and suggest that economies entered Q4 with a clear loss of momentum. With supply disruptions set to persist and... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Long road ahead for CEE auto producers Auto producers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced intermittent factory closures in the second half of this year and things may get worse before they get better. Motor vehicles... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slams its foot on the brakes with monster rate hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) shocked everyone with a 125bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting and while this was clearly intended to front-load tightening, the hawkish communications suggest that... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
