Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q2) Even though house price inflation on the ABS measure held steady at 10.2% in the second quarter, there are some signs beneath the surface that prices have started to lose momentum. Other forward... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the surge in full-time jobs mean for wages? While the acceleration in full-time jobs growth in Australia since the start of the year is clearly a positive development for income and consumption growth, the impact on wage growth and inflation is... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Near-term downside risks to dollar declining The recent rise of the Australian dollar to US$0.80 and developments overseas have led us to revise up our end-year forecast from US$0.70 to US$0.75. But we still believe that a fall in iron ore... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence edged up in September, but it remains low by historical standards and is consistent with a slowdown in the annual rate of consumption growth from 2.6%... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has economic growth passed its peak in New Zealand? While GDP growth should hold up fairly well over the next year, we expect there will be a sharper slowdown than the RBNZ and most analysts are anticipating in 2019 as the impacts of a cooling housing... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Jul.) The stagnation in retail sales and the fall in the international trade surplus in July suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter will be weaker than the second-quarter’s 0.8%. With households’... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) The 0.8% q/q rise in GDP in the second quarter overstates the health of the economy as it needs to be taken in context of the weak first quarter. The underlying rate of growth is probably more like 0... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s going on with mining? One recent data release showed that mining investment in Australia is still plunging while another suggested it has started to rebound. Both are technically right, as it all depends on how you measure... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch GDP growth to fall short of RBA’s lofty expectations While we agree with the assessment of the financial markets that there is next to no chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday 5 th September, we... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bouncing back It looks as though both Australia and New Zealand shook off the weakness at the start of the year as GDP growth may have bounced back in the second quarter. We estimate that the disappointing 0.3% q/q... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jun.) The notable rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) over the second quarter as a whole indicates that GDP growth may have accelerated from a disappointingly weak 0.5% q/q in the first quarter to... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The recent run of chunky rises in employment is helping to cushion the blow to households’ finances from record low wage growth. The past volatility of the data suggests it’s wise not to get too... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
