Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence leapt to its highest level in a year in October, which was a welcome sight given the recent run of weak data on household spending. That said, we remain... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong jobs growth isn’t a silver bullet for households The sizeable pick-up in employment growth in recent months presents an upside risk to our forecast that consumption growth will slow notably this year. But in light of the other headwinds restraining... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Retail weakness a worry, but not a disaster The recent slump in retail sales in Australia suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth that we have been warning about is underway. But it’s not a disaster for the economy as an associated... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Aug.) The net result of the retail sales and international trade data for August isn’t a disaster for the overall economy. But the weakness in retail sales supports our long-held view that a slowdown in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA becoming more confident in the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia may have left interest rates at 1.5% for the 14th month today, but its growing confidence in the outlook for activity and inflation may mean it will be prepared to signal... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs growth to be concentrated in highly paid sectors While leading labour market indicators in Australia continue to point a decent pace of employment growth ahead, it is not just the rate of jobs growth that matters but also the composition. And at... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ remains one of the most dovish central banks There remains plenty of uncertainty around the formation of the next government and who will be the next permanent Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but the one consistency is the dovish... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jul.) Following the bounce back in GDP growth last quarter, the decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in July suggests that the economy lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. That... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The markets are too hawkish We believe that the financial markets are wrong to price in the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates twice next year. Admittedly, it is possible that after... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Post-election negotiations may influence economy The financial markets won’t worry too much about how long it takes the various parties to form a government after the weekend’s general election, but the negotiations could influence the outlook for... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A solid first year from Governor Lowe Philip Lowe has notched up an impressive scorecard in his first year as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but greater challenges lie ahead. There are reasons to believe that economic growth... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - New Governor, new government (?), same dovish story While Grant Spencer will almost certainly decide to keep interest rates on hold at 1.75% at his first meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Thursday 28 th September, the... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The 0.8% q/q rise in the production measure of GDP in the second quarter won’t prevent the RBNZ from leaving interest rates at 1.75% at next Thursday’s policy meeting and striking a dovish tone too... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How overvalued is housing? Once you take into account the structural decline in interest rates over the past 40 years, housing in Australia isn’t as overvalued as some analysts have suggested. In fact, in most capital cities it... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Election may not dent the kiwi dollar much The outcome of the general election on Saturday may well alter the paths that New Zealand’s economy and the kiwi dollar tread over the next few years. But we doubt that any initial reaction would be... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
