Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may not get its Christmas wish The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t say as much in the statement released after it left interest rates at 1.5% for the 16th month today, but its Christmas wish must surely be for much more economic... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) & GDP Partials (Q3) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP in the third quarter may have risen by just 0.2% q/q, but at least the 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests the fourth quarter may be a bit better. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The third quarter private capital expenditure survey was better than expected, with the larger than normal upward revision to firms’ investment plans supporting our view that the outlook for business... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Effect of easing in LVR restrictions only modest Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) that it intends to ease existing loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions from the start of next year should provide a modest boost to housing... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe signalling that rates unlikely to rise next year Recent comments by Governor Lowe about the outlook for monetary policy all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at its final policy meeting of the year on... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Sep.) The decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in September suggests that the easing in GDP growth over the past year continued in the third quarter. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) While employment growth came off the boil in October, the labour market still appears to be simmering along nicely. The problem is that this has yet to translate into faster growth of retail sales and... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A state of convergence Over the next few years we expect that the relative performance of the largest states in Australia will converge, as the mining-exposed states of Queensland and Western Australia benefit most from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA admits it will miss its inflation target for two more years The Reserve Bank of Australia admitted in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy that underlying inflation will be below its 2-3% target for a year longer than it previously thought. We have been saying... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gives the new government the thumbs up More interesting than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having now left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a year was the Bank’s verdict on the impact of the new government. It believes that... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA too complacent on households and inflation Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates at 1.5% for the 15 th month today, we don’t think it is placing enough weight on the recent weakening in retail sales and softer news... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New CPI weights mean sub-2% inflation lasts longer The new CPI spending weights suggest that inflation will be 0.2 percentage points lower than otherwise over the next two years and therefore support our view that underlying inflation will stay below... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
