Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Our key calls for 2018 and some possible shocks 2018 is widely expected to be the year that the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand start to raise interest rates from their record lows. We disagree. In this Update, we outline five of our non... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability concerns persist into 2018 Financial stability concerns were in the spotlight in Australia for much of 2017 and although actions by the RBA and APRA have gone some way to addressing these concerns, recent news that household... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The further widening in the international trade deficit in November suggests that after making a neutral contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter, the external sector was probably a drag on GDP... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our 2018 forecasts Our money is on the Australian economy growing by 2.5% next year rather than 3.0%, which would mean growth is weaker than most expect and interest rates are likely to stay at 1.5%. If things are worse... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The good news is that the economy grew much faster in 2015 and 2016 than we all previously thought. The bad news is this makes the recent slowdown look a bit sharper and casts further doubt on the... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households will continue to struggle After slowing sharply in the third quarter, there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks about the prospects for real consumption growth in Australia in the fourth quarter. In particular... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal update offers no Christmas gift for the economy The only gift the Treasurer handed out in today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) was the one he gave himself, namely a stronger fiscal pot that will take a bit away from GDP growth next... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer to save MYEFO windfall for future tax cuts We expect the Treasurer will use his recent windfall of up to $10bn to emphasize in Monday’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that he is on track to generate a budget surplus in 2020/21 and also... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) Another month of extraordinarily strong jobs growth in November leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market. That said, there is still plenty of spare capacity which will... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Oct.) After probably slowing in the third quarter, the bounce back in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in October suggests that GDP growth started the fourth quarter on a stronger footing. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The leap in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December will be a welcome sight for retailers in the middle of the all-important Christmas shopping period. Nonetheless, with household... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q3) For anyone in doubt, the weakening in house prices in the third quarter all but confirms that Australia’s housing boom is over. And more up-to-date indicators suggest that prices fell further in the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will population growth save the housing market? Australia’s rapid rate of population growth doesn’t mean that house prices will always rise as population is not the most important determinant of demand over short periods of time. In any case, it’s... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses step up while households go on strike The recent shift in the composition of GDP growth in Australia has important consequences for the outlook for next year. While businesses will support growth by more than in any year since 2012... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) Australia has managed to notch up 12 consecutive months of an international trade surplus, but only just as the surplus slumped from $1.6bn in September to $0.1bn in October. The pollution controls in... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The performance of the economy in 2018 will largely come down to whether stronger business investment can continue to compensate for weaker dwellings investment and consumption, as it did in the third... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
