Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still ruling out a near-term rate hike The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Statement on Monetary Policy provided a clearer sign that the RBA has moved on from wondering if interest rates need to rise to considering when they will rise. But the... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates on hold throughout 2018 and 2019 The only thing we expect to change at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand‘s monetary policy meeting on Thursday 10 th May is the Governor, as interest rates will almost certainly stay on hold at 1.75% at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What next for the Aussie and kiwi dollars? The recent weakening in the Australian and New Zealand dollars probably has a bit further to go and the big risks still lie on the downside. That said, a shift in interest rate differentials next year... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The labour market continued to strengthen in the first quarter, with employment posting another decent rise and the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in almost a decade. And although wage... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA continues to signal only “gradual” improvement The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 1.5% for the 19th meeting in a row today and continued to signal that a near-term rate hike is unlikely. Further ahead, with GDP growth likely to... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) House price inflation fell below zero in April for the first time since 2012 and with demand probably only going to be more constrained by lending conditions, we suspect that it will fall further into... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA, the Royal Commission and housing We suspect that a tightening in lending standards as a result of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct will more than offset any further relaxation in APRA’s lending restrictions to leave... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Even though in the first quarter underlying inflation essentially rose back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time in two years, we doubt this means that the RBA will raise interest... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The fall back in CPI inflation towards the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range in the first quarter was partly due to government decisions rather than economic forces, but it nonetheless highlights... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Households remained fairly optimistic in April, despite the escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, with the Westpac measure of consumer confidence remaining above average for the fifth... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What next for house prices? The recent fall in the demand for housing relative to the supply is consistent with house prices continuing to decline in the coming months. While prices may only edge lower this year and next, higher... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Funding spike won’t push up mortgage rates much The recent rise in banks’ short-term funding costs would probably need to triple before banks could justify raising their mortgage rates by 0.25%, which would be equivalent to a hike in the official... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household spending to lose momentum There have been some encouraging data on the health of consumer spending in Australia recently, and with the labour market remaining strong and consumer confidence relatively high there are certainly... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
