Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Policymakers, housing and households As well as fretting about the rise in global trade barriers, policymakers in Australia are also becoming more worried about housing. And rightly so. After all, some of the most reliable leading... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s global and housing concerns grow Growing concerns about the global trade dispute and the deepening domestic housing downturn mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at 1.5%, as it did at today’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA, funding costs and mortgage rates The recent rebound in short-term funding costs is not big enough to prompt all banks to raise their mortgages rates by more than a few basis points. But the risk that funding costs rise further is one... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch A wilting desire to raise interest rates An apparent wilting desire to raise interest rates means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd July and probably won’t raise rates... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) The lacklustre rise in our NZAP in April suggests that after slowing in the first quarter the economy failed to regain much momentum in the second. We expect growth will continue to slow from here. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The possible spillovers from the US-China trade spat The escalating trade spat between the US and China could potentially boost the Australian economy in the near-term. But any reduction in global trade would be bad news for Australia in the long-term... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Is a financial crisis looming? The most likely consequence of the rapid build-up of household debt over the past decade is a number of years of softer GDP growth and lower interest rates than widely expected. But the risk of a more... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June is encouraging, we remain cautious about the outlook for consumption growth. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) After having been a big factor behind the strong rise in GDP in the first quarter, April’s international trade data suggest that net exports won’t be as supportive in the second quarter. So just one... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
