Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut interest rates to 1% The RBA will probably reduce its GDP growth forecasts at next week’s meeting but should still signal that the next move in rates will be up. Our more pessimistic outlook for economic activity, the... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) Inflation remained below the lower end of the RBA’s target range in the fourth quarter and we think it won’t rise within the target band any time soon. And if GDP growth slows as sharply as we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Support for first-time home buyers may come too late A renewed increase in public support for first-time home buyers would probably result in a rebound in home sales and house prices. But with federal elections due by May, any step-up in government... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The decent rise in employment in December shows that the housing downturn isn’t having a major impact on the labour market yet. But we expect domestic demand to slow sharply this year so jobs growth... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy still points to a softening in growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) suggests economic activity remains soft and that the slowing in GDP growth has further to run. That supports our view that GDP growth will weaken from 2.8% in... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Oil, housing and the labour market While the recent falls in oil prices may boost consumer spending, they render investment in new LNG projects less attractive and may therefore restrain mining investment. Meanwhile, the slump in... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) While the solid rise in retail sales values in November suggests that households are still coping well with falling house prices and sluggish incomes gains, we think that consumption growth will slow... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Spending boost from lower petrol prices won’t last The recent declines in petrol prices may boost consumer spending by around 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2019. But we suspect that this impact won’t be enough to prevent consumption... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade surplus will probably rebound in December but will expect net trade will make a negative contribution to Q4 GDP growth. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
