Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Balanced budget & tumbling yields The rapid improvement in the budget deficit provides the Coalition government with some scope to announce additional tax cuts or higher spending while maintaining its forecast of budget surpluses over... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut rates this year The RBNZ took a surprising dovish turn when it left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% today, indicating that the next move is likely down. Given that we are more downbeat about the outlook for... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates faster and more The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it leaves rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd April. But we’ve become even... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The fall in the unemployment rate to an eight-year low in February will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence in its forecast that the labour market will continue to tighten. By... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn becoming a major drag We believe that the downturn in the housing market will have a larger negative impact on the economy than most believe and have lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.5%. The upshot is that the labour... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Losing confidence The continued decline in business confidence in February suggests that the falls in business investment will persist into 2019. And the deterioration in consumer confidence may motivate households to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New government can’t ignore the weaker economy Irrespective of the incoming government’s planned policy, the deterioration in the economic outlook means that fiscal policy should become stimulatory to avoid exacerbating the downturn. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Jan.) The soft growth in retail sales in January means that weakness in consumption at the end of 2018 probably continued into 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may not support GDP as much as implied by the large... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q4) Subdued GDP growth in final quarter of 2018 sets the tone for softer growth this year. And given that the RBA has already adopted a neutral stance, we now suspect it may cut rates as soon as August. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s optimism won’t last long The RBA remained fairly confident when it left rates on hold today at 1.50% but we expect that as the data deteriorate this year the Bank will take a more dovish view. And before the end of the year... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Investment will be a drag on growth before long Data on investment spending released this week sent conflicting messages. We put more weight on the dismal construction work done figures and have penciled in falling business investment in the fourth... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
