Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q1) Private investment probably fell for the third consecutive quarter in Q1 and firms’ forecasts point to further declines over coming quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rebound in early 2020 We expect the current housing downturn to end around the turn of the year. We think that house prices may rise by 3% from their trough in 2020 and by 5% in 2021. While rising house prices should boost... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates may fall to 0.75% The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has telegraphed that it will cut interest rates to 1.25% in June and we think it will follow up with another 25bp cut in August. But we suspect that further easing... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA won’t launch QE anytime soon The RBA has made it clear that quantitative easing is its preferred tool once interest rates reach the effective lower bound. But we suspect that the Bank would first cut interest rates from their... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will not wait much longer before cutting rates Employment growth has picked up over the last couple of months, but with the labour force expanding even faster the unemployment rate has started to rise. With GDP growth below potential and... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The rise in unemployment in April was largely due to a jump in the labour force participation rate so the RBA may not feel pressured to ease policy immediately. But as unemployment remains high over... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q1) The stagnation in wage growth in the first quarter underlines that the tighter labour market isn’t boosting cost pressures and supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong credit growth no reason to cheer Strong business credit growth could be a sign that firms are becoming more upbeat about the outlook for business investment. In reality though, the data tend to lag actual investment spending and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut again before the year is out Subdued economic growth and a softening labour market mean that today’s interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be repeated before the year is out. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still likely to cut before long The Reserve Bank of Australia made only the slightest downward revisions to its forecasts when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. But it noted that further improvements in the labour... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar./Q1) Subdued growth in real retail sales in Q1 means consumption growth may have eased from the end of 2018. Meanwhile falling import volumes probably meant that net trade made a solid contribution to GDP... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pace of house price declines may be letting up The pace of house price declines has eased in recent months and forward indicators suggest there may be a further slowdown ahead. However, we still expect houses prices to fall by 15% from their peak... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
