RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will wait and see GDP growth in Q1 was stronger than the RBNZ had forecast and the Bank will have been encouraged by the government’s stimulatory Budget. As such, the RBNZ is likely to take a ‘wait and see’ approach... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) Growth in New Zealand is likely to remain soft throughout 2019 as subdued business conditions and weak global growth weigh on the economy. Indeed, we expect annual growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Unlike bond yields, we expect equities to fall further Investors are now even more dovish that we have long been about the outlook for monetary policy in the US. As such, we doubt that Treasury yields will drop further. However, we don’t expect looser... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May is unlikely to be sustained as the softness in economic activity limits employment growth. We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% before the end of the year. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Banks still likely to pass on rate cut in full Some of Australia’s banks have lowered mortgage rates by less than the reduction in the RBA’s cash rate. That’s hard to justify in light of the recent fall in funding costs. We think that mortgage... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q1) The economy is off to a rough start in 2019, and we suspect that things won’t get better anytime soon. Indeed, we expect the housing downturn to remain a drag on the economic outlook over the rest of... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may have to cut rates to 0.75% We think that today’s 25bp rate cut may be followed by two additional rate cuts before the year is out. Combined with renewed falls in iron ore prices, that suggests that the Australian dollar may... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The fall in retail sales in April demonstrates that the housing downturn is continuing to weigh on consumption growth. And we expect subdued consumption growth will continue to dash any hopes of a... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) We expect the pace of house price declines to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses remain cautious Business investment probably dropped again in Q1 and with business confidence remaining weak we think private investment will continue to decline over the rest of 2019. By contrast, we suspect the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Higher spending may provide a small economic boost Significant increases in operating and capital spending are a welcome takeaway from today’s Budget. But the economic impact is likely to be modest and the government is still expected to be a drag on... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
