Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack QE will result in lower bond yields in Australia The decline in bond yields in Australia and New Zealand throughout 2019 has paused in recent months following optimism about a potential trade deal between the US and China and hawkish language from... 21st November 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment The recent surge in stock buybacks has largely been driven by mining and financial firms and therefore can’t explain the weakness in non-mining investment. Non-mining profit growth should rebound a... 18th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market will remain RBA’s headache We wouldn’t read too much into October’s largest fall in employment in three years as the monthly data are volatile. But we still expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months as the... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The sharp fall in employment will be causing concern for the RBA and we think the unemployment rate has further to rise in the coming months. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates to 0.5% in 2020 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we believe that a deterioration in the economy will force the Bank to 0.5% by early next year. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The slowdown in wage growth in the third quarter doesn’t come as a complete surprise to the RBA and we still expect the Bank to wait until February before cutting rates again. 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA indicates further easing may be needed By signalling that inflation will remain below the lower end of its 2-3% target band for the foreseeable future, the RBA signalled that further easing is on the cards. Our view remains that the Bank... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Net trade probably didn’t bolster GDP growth in the third quarter which adds to the evidence that GDP growth slowed in Q3. And weaker capital goods imports suggest that the slump in business... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will cut further, but not until next year The economic data have been better than the Bank anticipated in their last set of forecasts in August so we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will leave rates on hold at its meeting on... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q3) The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in Q3 only reverses the decline in Q2 so we doubt the RBNZ will be too worried at this stage. 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still has more work to do The RBA reiterated its view that the economy had reached a gentle turning point when it left rates unchanged today. However, we think that the Bank’s forecasts for GDP growth and the labour market... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The decline in real retail sales in the third quarter suggests that consumption growth remained subdued. And with the bulk of the tax refunds already paid, the outlook for the fourth quarter isn’t... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong goods inflation probably won’t last The resilience in Q3 inflation was driven by the strongest increase in goods prices in a decade. But with import price growth now slowing, we think that strength won’t last. Meanwhile, we’ve lifted... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
