Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Consumption growth to remain muted this year Rising housing wealth may encourage households to spend a larger share of their incomes. But we expect income growth to weaken again as jobs growth slows and rising unemployment keeps a lid on wage... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ The New Zealand government’s $12 billion infrastructure package should contribute to a pick-up in business investment and GDP growth from the second half of this year. That supports our view that... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - The RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded confident when it left rates on hold today and we think the improvement in underlying economic conditions means the RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over. 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA under less pressure to cut rates The RBA may yet cut rates to 0.25% in response to the drag on economic activity from the bushfires and the coronavirus. But with domestic demand rebounding as the housing slump has turned to boom, the... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia The RBA has finally come around to our view that economic growth was weak at the end of 2019. But the Bank remains too optimistic on the outlook for 2020. We think the loss of tourism exports due to... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus counter-measures to cause GDP to fall The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the Australian economy will depend on how quickly the virus is brought under control. But given the disruption that has already happened to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to surge in January. But our sales to new listings ratio suggests that price growth may be approaching a peak. That’s consistent with our forecast for price growth to moderate... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bushfires & coronavirus to hit travel exports A combination of optimism about the prospect of a US-China trade deal and some better than expected economic data temporarily halted the decline in the Australian dollar towards the end of last year... 31st January 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing inflation won’t be enough to hit RBA target 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
