Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The drop in employment in September was largely due to weakness in Victoria. As restrictions ease there, we expect the unemployment rate to fall again in the coming months. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus now, monetary stimulus in November This week’s Australian Budget injected another huge dose of fiscal stimulus. Some of the measures may not be quite as effective as those in earlier rounds of stimulus but taken together Australia’s... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bank to announce more easing in November The RBA kept policy settings unchanged today but signaled that more stimulus is forthcoming. We now expect the Bank to cut the cash rate target, the 3-year yield target and the interest rate on the... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Chinese demand for iron ore supporting recovery Australia has been one of the few beneficiaries of the strong rebound in China’s economy which has contributed to the recent strengthening of the Australian dollar. Admittedly, we expect the price of... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid September PMIs, but recovery to lose steam September’s relatively strong batch of emerging market manufacturing PMIs suggests that recoveries in industrial production continued in September. But with the global rebound losing steam, growth in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing downturn continued its run in Sydney and Melbourne in September, but prices rose again in the other six capital cities and we think nationwide prices will reach a trough by the end of this... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap The latest on sovereign debt restructurings Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of EM financial conditions EM financial conditions have tightened a little in recent weeks, although only in Turkey does this threaten to become a significant headwind to growth. Elsewhere, conditions remain very loose but the... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest EM virus trends Most EMs in Latin America, Africa and South Asia that were battling worryingly large virus outbreaks appear to have passed the peak in recent weeks. That should allow a gradual scaling back of... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rise by 7% in 2021 The improvement in the labour market, lower borrowing costs and a turnaround in leading indicators all suggest that the housing downturn will soon come to an end. We now expect house prices across the... 22nd September 2020 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market looking up The unemployment rate fell in Australia in August despite the lockdown in Victoria. The phasing out of JobKeeper is threatening some jobs, particularly those people in Victoria still not working their... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
