RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The widening of the trade balance in September was not enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q3. 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The strong rebound in retail sales in Q3 was probably matched by a rebound in services consumption and has further to run as Victoria reopens. 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3% in New Zealand in Q3 means the unemployment rate is close to its peak and we expect the labour market to tighten next year. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - QE will probably be extended beyond April The RBA didn’t disappoint when it cut interest rates and launched quantitative easing today. And even though it turned more optimistic about the economic outlook, we suspect it will expand its... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Australia’s housing downturn came to an end last month and we reiterate our forecast that house prices will rise by 7% in 2021, led by Sydney. 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation may not weaken all that much Underlying inflation bounced back more strongly last quarter than we had anticipated and with the economy now opening up again, we’ve revised up our near-term forecasts. However, the Reserve Bank of... 30th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q3) The surge in quarterly inflation in Q3 only unwound some of the weakness in Q2 and we still expect underlying inflation to remain weak for years to come. 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates to 0.10% and launch QE The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates and launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. We suspect that aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will pave the... 28th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA QE to involve volume rather than yield target The minutes of the latest meeting all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting in November. While we previously argued that the RBA... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The further easing in headline and underlying inflation in Q3 are consistent with our view that weak inflation will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates into negative territory next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How much QE will the RBA deliver? The RBA’s assets will rise further over the coming months as banks draw down funding under the TFF. But so will the assets of other central banks. If the Bank wanted to catch up with the advanced... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More QE on the horizon RBA Governor Lowe announced this week that the Bank will keep rates on hold until actual inflation, rather than expected inflation, was sustainably in the 2-3% target band. And he also argued that the... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
