Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mixed outlook for bond yields Bond yields surged to a two-year high this week. While we agree with market expectations that the RBNZ will hike interest rates to 1% by 2023, we think that markets have gone too far in pricing in... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pandemic-driven staff shortages could lift wage growth Even though the unemployment rate is still as high as it was during the mining bust, job vacancies and the share of firms reporting staff shortages have surged. We suspect that this has been driven by... 22nd February 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy increasingly shrugging off lockdowns Short localised lockdowns are becoming increasingly common in New Zealand and Australia as governments seek to contain virus outbreaks. But the impact on consumption is typically short-lived and... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s house prices will keep rising strongly The RBNZ is responding to the recent surge in house prices by reimposing and later tightening LVR restrictions on mortgage borrowers. The impact of LVR restrictions on the housing market has been... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation to be stable despite stronger exchange rate While the exchange rate has strengthened sharply, goods prices are unlikely to fall. That should allow rising services prices to keep underlying inflation stable. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy outlook diverging The New Zealand unemployment rate fell in Q4 and our labour market suite showed an even sharper tightening in the labour market. That’s one reason why we don’t expect the RBNZ to cut rates and why we... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Dec./Q4) The decline in retail sales in December largely just reflects the impact of Black Friday sales. Given the reopening of the Victorian economy in Q4 consumption probably still rose strongly in the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Dwellings investment to rebound this year The recent surge in building approvals has largely been driven by the HomeBuilder Grant and probably won’t last. But with home sales soaring and house prices rising, dwellings investment should... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may extend QE one more time We are more upbeat about the outlook for the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia. But the RBA seems keen to err on the side of caution. With the latest extension of its QE programme already... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4. 2020) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% in New Zealand means the rate is already past the peak and we expect the labour market to continue to tighten throughout 2021. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may end QE by mid-year The RBA today upgraded its labour market forecasts but noted that the recovery remained dependent on “significant fiscal and monetary support”. Indeed, the Bank extended its Bond Purchase Program by... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices are already rising at a solid pace but forward indicators suggest that the pace of gains is set to increase in the months ahead. 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation on the rise The jump in consumer prices in Q4 largely reflects price hikes for items whose prices are set by the government. Even so, underlying inflation is holding up better than we and the RBA had anticipated... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
