Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year. 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia upgraded its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation but reiterated that it is prepared to extend its asset purchases. We stick to our forecast of another $100bn extension... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now Inflation was subdued in Q1 and while we expect the plunge in prices in Q2 2020 to cause a surge in inflation this quarter, headline inflation should be just 2% by year-end. More importantly, we... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch RBA still likely to extend bond purchases further The Reserve Bank of Australia will revise down its near-term forecasts for the unemployment rate at its meeting on 4th May, but it will probably still signal that inflation will fall short of its 2-3%... 28th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2021) The weakness in underlying inflation in Q1 is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce a third $100bn round of asset purchases before long. And it suggests that the... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Implications of a trade war with China New Zealand is playing with fire by criticising the human rights situation in China’s Xinjiang province. While China is highly dependent on New Zealand’s flagship dairy, meat and logs exports, it... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) We think underlying inflation will remain close to the RBNZ’s target for the foreseeable future which supports our view that the RBNZ will hike rates next year. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Higher capital weights won’t stymie credit growth New Zealand’s experience suggests that the planned increase in risk-weightings for investor housing loans in Australia won’t act as a big deterrent to bank lending. If investor loan growth started to... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar The RBA is sticking to its upbeat assessment of Australian households’ financial resilience. But if credit growth picks up and lending standards slip, we think APRA may intervene before long. We now... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which... 15th April 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Mar.) The continued tightening of the labour market in March means that a further extension of quantitative easing isn't a done deal, but amid weak wage growth and inflation we still expect the RBA to press... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Travel bubble & vaccine rollout The Australia-New Zealand travel bubble is set to launch in mid-April which should support employment in the tourism and transport sectors. But employment won’t fully rebound until the tourism returns... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its dovish stance despite the strength in recent data so we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in June. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
