Global Central Bank Watch How will central banks respond to the inflation threat? The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the... 30th June 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably shift to a flexible form of QE at the upcoming meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged. However, we still expect the Bank to start... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Is the strength in employment an accounting illusion? The labour force survey overstates the strength of the recovery in employment because it doesn’t capture the plunge in the number of non-resident workers. However, their impact on the labour market... 27th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling Australia’s vaccine campaign has accelerated in recent months, but we estimate that the pace of vaccinations would have to double to inoculate the adult population by year-end. Unfortunately... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lasting decline in saving rate would be an upside risk The surge in consumption in Q1 resulted in the savings rate falling to a 15-year low. While we expect households to respond to falling house prices with higher savings, the rebound in GDP could be... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices to fall in 2022 We expect the RBNZ to impose new lending restrictions in the months ahead which, in addition to rising interest rates, should result in house prices declining next year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May demonstrates that the labour market is continuing its extraordinary rebound which supports our call for the RBA to move to a flexible asset purchase programme in July. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2021) The solid rise in activity in Q1 means that New Zealand easily avoided a second technical recession and we expect GDP to continue its rebound over the rest of 2021. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may make QE more flexible We now expect the RBA to refrain from announcing a target for the overall amount of bond purchases at the July meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged at $5bn. A more flexible... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of the pandemic on inflation We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By... 2nd June 2021 · 16 mins read
