Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening imminent but won’t start with a bang ‘Freedom day’ in New South Wales could be reached in little over a month. But the new freedoms will only be given to vaccinated residents. And the slower progress on vaccination in other states mean... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to press ahead with tightening Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should... 9th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may only hike in 2023 While the RBA pressed ahead with tapering its asset purchases today, the financial markets are too optimistic in pricing in rate hikes as soon as next year. 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening New South Wales and Victoria look set to remain under heavy restrictions until the vaccinations thresholds can be met. But with cases and hospitalisations surging there is a risk that hospitals will... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021) The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The health situation in Australia continues to deteriorate, but the acceleration in the vaccine rollout means that lockdowns probably won’t last much longer. The Bank doesn’t believe that stepping up... 1st September 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 2021) The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The drag from the current lockdowns on the housing market won’t last, but we expect house price growth to slow in earnest next year as affordability constraints bite. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up The easing of restrictions for vaccinated people in New South Wales announced today fell short of expectations but with the vaccine rollout accelerating, Australia’s lockdowns should end towards the... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021) The decline in retail sales in July highlights the impact that lockdowns are having on the Australian economy. And with lockdowns spreading and intensifying in August, sales will fall further before... 27th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2) We estimate that private investment rose by 1.5% q/q in Q2 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest firms are still keen to invest when lockdowns ease. 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ may delay hiking until May The recent reimposition of the strictest level of lockdown in New Zealand was enough to prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates in August. And our assumption that restrictions will now remain in place... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The further decline in the unemployment rate in July may not last long, but it should be more than enough to convince the RBA to proceed with its plans to taper asset purchases in September. 19th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ ready to lift rates when restrictions ease The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it left rates on hold today, but the decision demonstrates that the Bank is taking a cautious approach in light of the current lockdown. Assuming restrictions can be... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
