Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year. 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3 2021) With private consumption now rebounding strongly as lockdowns have ended, output in states not affected by lockdowns continuing to rise, and capital spending resilient, we expect GDP to surpass its... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying inflation should prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to taper its bond purchases in February and... 30th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter. 26th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21) Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters. 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates to 2.0% next year While the RBNZ only hiked rates by 25bps at today’s meeting, it is set to continue lifting rates next year. However, we think a slowdown in the economy will end the Bank’s hiking cycle with the OCR at... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Rate hikes will result in housing downturn High household debt will magnify the impact of interest rate hikes on the housing market and we now expect prices across the eight capital cities to fall by 5% from H2 2023. The upshot is that the RBA... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) The 0.6% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q3 will provide the RBA with some confidence that rates need to remain low in the near term. But we think that wage growth will rise over 2022, putting... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will keep the RBA under pressure Business purchase costs in the October NAB survey rose to their strongest level since 2008, consistent with trimmed mean inflation of nearly 1.5% q/q. That probably overstates the strength in... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The rise in the unemployment rate suggests that the labour market continued to suffer right up until the end of the recent lockdowns. But given the ending of lockdowns in mid-October we expect the... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA recapitalisation would lift public debt Rising interest rates will result in the RBA making further losses in the years ahead. The Bank’s existing reserves should be enough to absorb those losses in a benign scenario, but the Bank will stop... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to hike by 50bp, RBA remains the archdove The exceptional strength of New Zealand’s mean that we now think the RBNZ will hike rates by 50bps in November and by a further 100bps next year, which would take the OCR to 2.0%. That’s above the... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
