Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in fertility need not slow population growth The sharp drop in the fertility rate during the pandemic has already started to reverse. And even if it is sustained, the government will be able to offset a slower natural increase with higher net... 14th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much The full reopening of the border will prompt more Australians to make holidays overseas. The key point though is that it sends a powerful message that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us, which... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates to 1.75% Continued strength in underlying inflation and activity will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to start hiking rates in June. And we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 1.75% by August... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA hiking cycle to start as RBNZ’s ends The RBA is coming around to the view that rates will need to be hiked this year. And our forecast that inflation will continue to surprise the Bank in the months ahead is why we think it will start... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 2021) The fall in the trade balance in December is consistent with trade having been a sizable drag on growth at the end of last year. Australia Drop-in: Will soaring inflation prompt the RBA to follow the... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q4 2021) The further decline in the unemployment rate to a record low of 3.2% will keep the RBNZ on its hiking cycle in the months ahead. But we suspect the unemployment rate will rise again before long. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates in August The jump in consumer prices in Q4 reflected further strong gains in the usual suspects of petrol prices and costs of new dwelling purchases. But services inflation has picked up sharply as well. With... 28th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The persistent rise in inflation to the highest levels in 30 years will be worrying the RBNZ. That’s why we expect the Bank to hike aggressively in the first half of this year. 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA probably won’t hike before the May election Trimmed mean inflation will probably climb above the upper end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band in Q1, which would add to the case for the RBA to start hiking rates in May. However, the RBA hasn’t... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch Surge in inflation will prompt first rate hike in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration in underlying inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its asset purchases at its meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 25th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The strong rise in underlying inflation at the end of last year means the RBA is all but certain to end its asset purchase scheme at its meeting next week. And with underlying inflation now above the... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February. 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
