Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA signals June rate hike is coming After the RBA this week signalled that it will no longer be patient when it comes to tightening policy, the consensus has come around to our long-held view that the Bank will start to lift interest... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate tightening cycle with 50bp hike Inflation is set to exceed the RBNZ’s forecasts yet again this year. With the Bank becoming increasingly worried that soaring inflation will dislodge inflation expectations, we think it will hike... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s resistance to tighter policy waning While today’s policy statement wasn’t outright hawkish, the RBA’s dovishness is waning and we’re confident in our forecast that the Bank will start to lift interest rates in June. 5th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening adds fuel to inflation fire The huge expansion in public spending since the start of the pandemic is a key reason why we expect Australia’s GDP to have surpassed its pre-virus trend at the start of this year despite the drag on... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We continue to expect house prices to begin falling across the eight capital cities in 2023. But the price declines in Sydney and Melbourne in March suggest that the downturn could be starting sooner... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges With Governor Lowe warming to the idea of tighter policy, we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA will start to hike rates in June. Our forecast that rates will peak at 1.75% is above the analyst... 30th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy adds pressure on RBA to hike rates With the government facing defeat in May’s election, today’s Budget continued the course of loose fiscal policy that began at the start of the pandemic. As the unemployment rate is set to fall to a 50... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb. 2022) The further rise in retail sales in February still leaves them a touch below their November peak but is consistent with our forecast of a solid rise in consumption in Q1. 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures rising Australia’s flash PMI for March provides further evidence that the pace of price rises is increasing and we think that strong inflation will convince the RBA to hike interest rates in June. Meanwhile... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Fixed mortgages won’t protect the housing market New Zealand’s high share of fixed mortgage rates won’t insulate the housing market from RBNZ rate hikes. Indeed, we’re sticking to our view that house prices will fall this year and cause the RBNZ to... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration revival won’t let RBA off the hook Migration is rebounding much faster after the border reopening than we had anticipated. While that will slow the decline in the unemployment rate, the labour market is already historically tight and... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget to target inflation while reducing deficits The New Zealand government this week reduced fuel excise taxes by 25 cents per litre for three months. And Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated the Australian Budget due on the 29 th... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2022) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate takes the labour market closer to full employment, setting the RBA up to hike rates in June. 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2021) The rebound in GDP at the end of last year was larger than the RBNZ was anticipating, which should keep the Bank on its hiking track. And we expect the rebound to have continued in the current quarter... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation will hit 21-year high We now expect inflation to reach a 21-year high of 5.2% in Q3 as fuel prices surge and firms pass on higher raw material costs to consumers. With the labour market nearing full employment and... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
