Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 2022) The rise in the trade balance in March won’t be enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q1. In the months ahead higher export prices due to the war in Ukraine should lift... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2022) Retail sales defied the weakness in consumer confidence in March and with the household savings rate still high, we expect consumption to keep expanding at a strong pace. 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2022) The continued tightness in the New Zealand labour market despite the omicron outbreak provides further evidence that the economy is still running hot. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 50... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA will hike rates to 2% by year-end The RBA started hiking the cash rate today and sounded hawkish for the first since the start of the pandemic. Our forecast that interest rates will reach 2% by year-end is far above the analyst... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike by 15bp next week Inflation is now surging in Australia and that surge is spreading well beyond the impact of soaring commodity prices. We therefore think the RBA needs to begin tightening policy. The RBA might want to... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges The surge in inflation would warrant a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming meeting on 3 rd May. But we think the Bank will wait until the June meeting, where we now expect the cash... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) Inflation surged in Q1 and is on track to surpass 6% later this year, exceeding the levels reached around the GST hike in 2000. With trimmed mean inflation already higher than at the start of previous... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to hike aggressively this year The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting show that it is coming around to our view that rates will need to be hiked before long. We expect next week’s Q1 CPI data to show inflation surpassing 4%, which... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) The 1.8% q/q rise in consumer prices in Q1 was broadly in line with the RBNZ’s expectations, which reduces the likelihood of another 50 basis point hike in the OCR in May. But we still think high... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Government support won’t prevent housing downturn The expansion of the government’s “Home Guarantee Scheme” will only result in a modest boost to housing demand. And with affordability set to worsen sharply as the RBA hikes interest rates, it won’t... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How far can interest rates rise? Most analysts are overestimating the near-term negative impact of RBA rate hikes on household finances and are therefore underestimating the degree of tightening required to bring inflation under... 19th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to follow RBNZ as inflation about to surge The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the 50bp rate hike we were anticipating this week and we think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will embark on its own tightening cycle in June. With the... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2022) The unemployment rate remaining at its joint lowest rate since the 1970s should be enough to keep the RBA on track to begin hiking rates in June. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike rates to 3.0% The RBNZ’s decision to accelerate its hiking cycle shows it is willing to move decisively to get a hand on surging inflation. That’s in line with our forecast that it will hike the OCR to 3.0% by the... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
