Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures keep building The big minimum wage hike announced by the fair work commission this week will lead to higher wage growth over the coming year. Given the tightness in the labour market and rising cost pressures... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May 2022) The strong rise in employment in May will keep pressure on the RBA to continue its aggressive hiking cycle in the months ahead. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21 st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2022) The fall in GDP at the start of the year was due to the disruption to activity from the Omicron outbreak. Growth will have rebounded strongly in the current quarter, but we suspect falling house... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Minimum wage rise will keep RBA hiking aggressively The 5.2% increase in the minimum wage announced by the Fair Work Commission will directly lift the Wage Price Index by around 0.7%-pt. But the increase will also contribute to upward pressure on wage... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA could raise rates even faster than we anticipate We’ve long been arguing that the RBA will lift rates more sharply than most analysts anticipate and the RBA’s surprise 50bp rate hike this week is consistent with our view that rates will reach 3% by... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will prompt RBA rate cuts in 2023 With the RBA set to hike the cash rate to 3% by early-2023, we now expect house prices to fall by 15% from their April peak. While the economy has considerable momentum from reopening in the near-term... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Rates to rise to 3% by early-2023 The 50bp hike in the cash rate today is consistent with our view that interest rates will peak at higher levels than most anticipate and we’re expecting additional 50bp hikes in July and August. 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining’s heydays are over Mining accounted for less than 10% of GDP last quarter for the first time since 2015 and with mining firms not responding to soaring commodity prices with higher investment, that decline has further... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2022) While the rise in export values in April was mostly due to rising commodity prices, the further fall in import values suggests that net trade will turn into a boost to GDP growth in Q2 after a huge... 2nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 22) The solid rise in Q1 GDP supports our view that the economy will hold up better in the face of rising interest rates and falling real incomes than most anticipate. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - The case for a windfall tax on mining profits The rapid improvement in the public finances means that the government can provide financial support to households struggling with high energy bills without raising taxes. But if it did decide that... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 3.0% by early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hike its cash rate by another 25bp at its meeting on 7 th June, but we expect it to accelerate its hiking cycle with a 40bp hike in August following the... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand house prices to fall by 20% House prices in New Zealand are tumbling and all signs point to a further deterioration in the months ahead. On that basis, we are revising up our forecast for the peak to trough decline in prices... 30th May 2022 · 4 mins read
