Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Early signs that households are coming under pressure

With commodity prices surging in the wake of the Ukraine war, the final budget outcome for 2021/22 improved the most relative to the Budget forecast in history. And with coal prices still sky high...

30th September 2022 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Monthly CPI Indicator & Job Vacancies (Aug. 2022)

The inaugural release of Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator showed that inflation eased a bit in August, though we still expect it to approach 8% in Q4. Meanwhile, the first drop in job vacancies since...

29th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug.)

29th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (Aug. 2022)

The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. And with the savings rate still well above pre-virus levels, retail...

28th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Turning point for inflation has been reached

While the exchange rate has only played a minor role in the surge in “core” goods inflation to a record-high, the further depreciation of the Australian dollar over the past month will tilt the...

23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long

The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...

22nd September 2022 · 11 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA recapitalisation not off the table yet

Despite incurring a record loss last year and now having to operate with negative equity, the RBA has not requested a recapitalisation from the government. But given that it did receive a capital...

21st September 2022 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will deliver another 50bp rate hike

RBA Governor Lowe reiterated today that the Bank will slow the pace of tightening at some point. But his hawkish comments on the health of consumer spending and the labour market suggest that this...

16th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2022)

While the first rise in Australia’s unemployment rate since last year’s Delta lockdown should be followed by a renewed fall, it will encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to slow the pace of...

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug. 22)

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand GDP (Q2 2022)

Despite a large rise in Q2, New Zealand’s GDP remains well below its pre-virus trend and that shortfall will widen as the surge in interest rates weighs on activity.

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q2)

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will slow pace of tightening to 25bp next month

Consumption has recovered faster than we had expected. However, income growth has disappointed and the savings rate is falling more sharply than we had thought. That leaves less scope for households...

9th September 2022 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jul. 2022)

The record fall in Australia’s trade balance partly reflects bad weather that held back coal exports, but the recent fall in the iron ore price hasn’t fully fed through so export values will continue...

8th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (July 2022)

8th September 2022 · 2 mins read