Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 2022) Private investment rebounded last quarter and while firms’ projections at face value point to a further pick-up over the remainder of the financial year, the figures are consistent with a slowdown in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Private Capex (Q3 & 2022/23) 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House prices continued to fall at a rapid rate in November and with housing affordability now the most stretched since the early 1990s, that downturn has much further to run. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April With the labour market still very tight and inflation far above the RBA’s target, we expect another 25bp hike next week. However, with inflation starting to level off and consumption growth softening... 30th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CPI Indicator (Oct.) & Construction Work Done (Q3) We wouldn’t read too much into the drop in the Monthly CPI Indicator in October because the figures don’t cover the entire CPI basket, but the data suggest that inflation is about to peak. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct.) 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2022) Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect... 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22) 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand will enter prolonged recession We already predicted that New Zealand would enter recession a month ago and the RBNZ’s determination to push the economy off a cliff to get inflation under control means the downturn will be even... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will probably lift rates to 5.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked the overnight cash rate by 75bp as most had anticipated but signalled a much higher peak in the OCR than in August. We’re now forecasting another 75bp hike in... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still not a major driver of price pressures Even though wage growth surpassed 3% for the first time since 2012 last quarter, and unemployment is back at a record low, the tight labour market has not been a major driver of the recent surge in... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2022) Australia’s labour market held up well in October, consistent with our expectations for a near-term acceleration in wage growth and a further 100bps of rate hikes by the RBA. But we think employment... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its... 16th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) Wage growth climbed above 3% in Q3 for the first time since 2013 and we expect it to climb further to 3.5% by the middle of next year. 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilience in consumption won’t last The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
