Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2023)

The weakness in January’s labour market data shows that rapid rate hikes are starting to cool activity, but with inflation still far too high that won’t prevent the RBA from tightening policy for a...

16th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Jan. 23)

16th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Inflation set to slow sharply

The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now...

15th February 2023 · 12 mins read

RBNZ Watch

RBNZ will press ahead with another 75bp hike

The incoming data have been a touch softer than the RBNZ had anticipated. While we still expect the Bank to press ahead with the 75bp hike it signalled in November at the upcoming meeting on 22 nd...

15th February 2023 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Hawkish RBA will lift cash rate above 4% by May

With inflation surpassing its forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly concerned about a wage-price spiral. Accordingly, we’re lifting our forecast for the peak in the cash...

10th February 2023 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ

We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023.

8th February 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA signals more tightening to come

The RBA raised interest rates by another 25bp and signalled that further tightening will be needed. We’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to an above-consensus 3.85% by...

7th February 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 22)

7th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Dec. 2022)

Export volumes probably edged up last quarter while import volumes plunged so net trade should provide a boost to Q4 GDP growth.

7th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (Dec. 22)

7th February 2023 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Housing slump still searching for the bottom

Australia’s house prices are still falling rapidly and there is no bottom in sight. The fastest house price decline in Australia’s history will soon be the largest as the RBA continues to ratchet...

3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA not done tightening yet

The incoming data do not warrant a pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle and we expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. However, with inflation set to come off the boil, we forecast...

31st January 2023 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Dec. 2022)

Retail sales volumes declined last quarter on the back of a weaker-than-expected end to 2022. A solid increase in services spending means overall consumption should still have risen at a decent clip...

31st January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Upstream price pressures are turning

Stronger-than-expected consumer price inflation data from Australia this week underlined the pressure the RBA is still under. But there is also growing evidence that upstream price pressures are...

27th January 2023 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4/Dec. 22)

Inflation rose further last quarter and remains far too high for the RBA’s liking. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our non-consensus forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April.

25th January 2023 · 3 mins read