Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand to maintain budget discipline We’re inclined to take Prime Minister Hipkins at his word that the New Zealand government will hand down a fiscally responsible budget next week. We expect government priorities, including cost-of... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal consolidation is put on the backburner The 2023/24 Budget unveiled yesterday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers was something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the modest spending measures proposed by the government will not break the bank, thanks... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth has yet to peak Pay hikes under Australia's private-sector enterprise bargaining agreements have gained traction. Although annualised wage growth will climb higher over the course of the year, we still expect a... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 2023) The widening of the trade surplus in recent months belies the negligible contribution that net exports will have made to Q1 GDP. Indeed, we think the weakness in import values last quarter primary... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 23) 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) While retail sales values rose at a decent pace in March, we estimate that sales volumes fell the most since 2021’s lockdowns last quarter and that weakness has further to run. That in turn should... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some lessons from the RBA and RBNZ for global yield curves We don’t think central bank hawkishness in major developed markets would necessarily push long-term yields up by much. 2nd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle over but rate cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its tightening bias when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp at today’s meeting, but we suspect that it won’t raise interest rates any further over the coming months... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The ongoing rebound in house prices is living on borrowed time. With affordability extremely stretched and the economy poised for a sharp downturn, we’re sticking to our forecast that house prices... 2nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly House prices in New Zealand will keep falling The RBNZ's proposal to ease loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions is unlikely to be a panacea for New Zealand's ailing housing market. With housing still far too unaffordable for most, house prices... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
