Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp drop in unemployment in February was likely a blip, rather than a trend. With job vacancies continuing to fall back, we suspect the unemployment rate will rise anew in the months ahead. 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2023) With the New Zealand economy in a double-dip recession, we’re sticking to our guns that the RBNZ will cut rates more aggressively than most anticipate. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Mar. 23) 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The worst may be over for the Australian consumer National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of high terms of trade on Australia The surge in the terms of trade explains some of the resilience of Australia’s economy as it has probably encouraged the government to spend more money than it would have done without soaring mining... 7th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2023) Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade. 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ on hold, a positive signal for bond markets? The RBNZ’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold today illustrates how the bar for further rate hikes has become increasingly high for most central banks, even in the face of upside surprises to... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read