Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect Australia to enter a recession The economy held a bit better last quarter than most had anticipated. And with the bulk of the RBA’s rate hikes now passed through to mortgage rates and inflation cooling, the largest falls in real... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2023) 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) Australian house prices rose at a blistering pace in August, as demand continued to outstrip supply. Although the property market is likely to remain tight in the near term, we think house price... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Industrial action looms, residential investment falls Earlier this week, unions at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants in Australia announced their intent to begin strike action from September 7th. Although the industrial dispute will have a... 31st August 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2 2023) We don’t think the ongoing strength in private fixed investment will last. However, the balance of risks to our outlook for activity is now tilted somewhat to the upside. 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will cut interest rates by early-2024 All of the key indicators released over the past month support our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now done hiking interest rates. With inflation now slowing rapidly and the economy set to... 30th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul. 23) 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul.) We don’t believe that the healthy uptick in retail sales in July represents a second wind for the Australian consumer. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBA’s tightening cycle is at... 28th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas prices strike lower; iron ore resilient It has generally been a positive week for commodity prices. Most metals and agricultural prices rose on the week, in somewhat of a turnaround from recent trends. By contrast, energy commodities fell... 25th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Storm clouds gather over the economic outlook New Zealand’s retail sales fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2, as households continued to tighten their belts. What’s more, the sharp drop in heavy traffic volumes in July suggests that goods... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will public and foreign demand prevent a recession? With inflation cooling, the government may soon become more willing to support the economy, but we doubt it will provide as much support as it did during the global financial crisis. However, net... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy remains in a rut Earlier this week, the RBNZ signalled that rates would need to remain at their current restrictive level until early-2025. However, we think the Bank will shift gears well before then, given the... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 23) A boost to the labour supply is helping to take the heat out of Australia’s tight labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise rates any... 17th August 2023 · 2 mins read
