Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rates may eventually fall below 3% While today's interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to 3.25% from 3.50%, came a bit earlier than we expected, towards the start of the year we were one of the few analysts... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (May.) The 42,000 gain in Australian employment in May will no doubt add to claims that Australia’s economy has weathered the end of the mining boom well. However, the reading almost certainly exaggerates... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy will soon run out of puff While the Australian economy may have shot out of blocks at the start of the year, there are good reasons to think that it will soon run out of puff. Indeed, April’s data suggest that the boosts to... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Preparing the ground for rate cuts We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will use the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 11 th June and the publication of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement to further prepare... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia's economy grew at a very healthy rate in the first quarter, which will probably prompt some suggestions that it has weathered last year's fall in commodity prices well. We think the worst is... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakening outlook will prompt RBA to act again We suspect that today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% is nothing more than a pause in the loosening cycle that could yet result in rates... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA presses pause, not stop While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is highly likely to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2 nd June, we think it will cut rates further later this year. Our... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget bounce in confidence will be short-lived The bounce in consumer confidence in Australia triggered by the Budget will probably be temporary and won’t prompt households to flock to the shops. Even a Budget-related increase in business... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dollar divergence won’t last The recent divergence of the Australian and New Zealand dollars has been driven by swings in relative interest rate expectations, but we doubt it will be sustained. (See Chart below.) We think the... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget hits ball back into the RBA’s court The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New mortgage restrictions raise rate cut chances The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) plan to tighten its macro-prudential polices in order to tame house price inflation in Auckland could be another sign that it is preparing the ground for a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Response – Economy hung out to dry The 2015-16 Budget will quash any talk of a credit rating downgrade, but won’t give the economy a much-needed helping hand. The decision by Treasurer Joe Hockey not reduce the coming fiscal squeeze... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fresh euro weakness should buoy German equities Although it has still been one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, the DAX index has come off the boil over the past month. We do not expect its recent weakness to continue... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growing pressure on RBNZ to join rate cutting club Last week’s news that the unemployment rate in New Zealand is not falling as widely expected and is rising as we thought it might has added to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
