Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 0.5% cut likely next step towards a new record low of 2.0% In a change to our previous forecast, we now expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates by 0.5%, to 2.75%, at the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 23rd July and... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) The continued low level of both headline and core CPI inflation in New Zealand in the second quarter all-but guarantees that the RBNZ will cut interest rates to 3.00% at next week’s policy meeting... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Slowdown becoming more widespread While much of the weakness in GDP growth in New Zealand in Q1 was due to the temporary effect of the drought, more recent data suggest that the slowdown is spreading to other sectors. The risks to our... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Australia Employment (Jun.) The continued resilience of the labour market in June seems odd given the economic challenges that Australia is facing. As such, we expect that an easing in jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lower dollar won't prevent further RBA rate cuts Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the second month in a row today and did not provide a clear hint that more cuts lie ahead, we still... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wider Australian trade deficit not that bad for Q2 GDP Since most of the recent sharp widening in Australia’s trade deficit is because commodity prices have reduced export values rather than due to outright falls in export volumes, net trade probably... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What would Grexit mean for Australia? The Australian economy would be largely untouched even if the current problems in Europe culminated in a widespread financial crisis and another euro-zone recession. That said, if the Reserve Bank of... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Biding its time The mixed tone of the data released since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) last policy meeting probably isn’t enough to spur the Bank to cut interest rates from 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the strength of Australia’s labour market last? The Australian labour market appears to be coping surprisingly well with the end of the mining boom. However, we suspect that the recent data overstate the strength of the labour market. Moreover, if... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption growth set to slow While consumption growth in Australia held up well in the first quarter, there is little chance that an increase in household spending will prevent the economy from slowing. Employment and wage growth... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still has more work to do The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) repeated statements that it is still open to further rate cuts, depending on the incoming data, have not changed the view of some that 2.0% marks the floor for... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in New Zealand's economy in the first quarter was partly down to the temporary impact of a drought on the agricultural sector, but there are a number of other factors that will keep... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Policymakers have more work to do Policymakers and the markets are too complacent in thinking that the slowdowns in GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will be modest and short-lived. In contrast, we believe that growth in... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for New Zealand interest rates and the dollar? The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 3.25% leaves our prediction that rates will be 3.0% by the end of the year on track and has helped achieve one of our other... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
